What is the compelling question or challenge?
How to do we design, implement, govern and maintain a resilient environment that will adapt to a rapidly changing climate and provide multiple benefits to humans and biodiversity conservation?
What do we know now about this Big Idea and what are the key research questions we need to address?
Rich Sorkin, co-founder, Jupiter Intelligence recently commented regarding climate change: "We live in a world designed for an environment that no longer exists,". My big idea is that we have the analytical capability to redesign that environment for maximum resilience to change. Often referred to as the Anthropocene, we live in a period where humans are directly changing the environment upon which we depend. We have built our cities, infrastructure, agriculture and nature reserves based upon a stable and predictable climate that is increasingly unstable. We now know, based on numerous studies and reports, including the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, that the climate is changing due to anthropogenic causes, casting doubt on the sustainability of coastal cities, traditional agriculture, and the integrity of biodiversity within fixed boundary areas of nature protection.
The history of conservation has been dominated by the practice of establishing small, medium and large areas that represent some unique aspect of nature (often driven by scenery) and then protecting them from boundary encroachments. Around the world, different approaches and models have been tried, some implementing extreme measures (killing poachers on sight), fencing, captive breeding of endangered animals, and boundary expansions to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. Whether or not these approaches can achieve long term resiliency is an open question for research.
The concept of stewardship of protected areas as islands in a sea of change may no longer be viable. Climate change, along with other stressors, has forced a reconsideration of the current model of protected area management to address large landscape integration. Learning to manage at the landscape scale, with parks or equivalent protected areas linked with corridors and integrated with communities, transportation systems, watersheds, agriculture, and sustainable economies is a critical component to the future of conservation. While we have powerful analytical tools to envision or even design large landscape connectivity, we do not yet have the political and public policy tools to achieve the “governance” required for it to be sustained and achieve stated goals (such as biodiversity conservation) during periods of rapid change.
The nature near home, green spaces and urban parks have become more recognized as essential components to the quality of human lives. A growing body of research is demonstrating a direct link between a healthy environment and human health. Green infrastructure in cities has been shown to mitigate (cool) increased temperatures, absorb run-off, buffer storm surges, and protect coastal cities.
Using the analytical power of geospatial data and software, coupled with the predictions of climate change (sea level rise, changes in precipitation, hurricane frequency and intensity, wildfire, etc.), current knowledge of multiple values of outdoor spaces (public health, ecosystem services, recreation, climate mitigation, etc.), large landscapes can be redesigned to provide multiple benefits to both humans and nature. Current examples of this concept in practice include the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan which stretches from the farmlands of the Kissimmee River to Florida Bay, over 250 miles to the south. Multiple efforts are underway to restore natural water quality, quantity and timing in the watershed benefiting the ecology of Everglades National Park and the potable water supply of Miami. There are other examples underway, though not yet fully integrated or realized such as the Three Rivers area of China and the Patagonia Region of Chile and Argentina.
Why does it matter? What scientific discoveries, innovations, and desired societal outcomes might result from investment in this area?
Without too much hyperbole, the survival of the human race depends on figuring out how to adapt to a changing environment. Competition for resources (such as food and water), is often at the root of regional conflicts, refugee crises, and all-out war. Climate change will exacerbate these conflicts as coastal communities are forced inland, agriculture lands become less arable, species move into new territories and essential resources for life become confined (and defended) to select areas. By using the restorative power of nature, even within dense urban communities, large landscapes can become highly resilient to climate change as well as other societal disturbances. A more peaceful, equitable and cooperative planet, where humans and nature work together, is a viable future.
Large landscape design for resilience presents a wide range of opportunities for scientific discoveries. For example, a well-integrated large landscape will provide the best opportunity for biodiversity conservation as species will be able to either move or find new refuges. According to Harvard Professor E.O. Wilson, 80% of the species on the earth have yet to be fully described, leaving a vast opportunity for research, including bio-prospecting for new treatments of diseases. Understanding how cooperative governance works at the landscape scale offers significant research opportunities in public policy, urban planning, transportation, and economic stability. Innovations built from the ground up in different landscapes will be subject of study and adaptation to other landscapes both domestically and abroad. Frameworks for new collaborations across multiple sectors (which are typical siloed or at odds) will have multiple societal benefits including stable economies, quality of life and often unexpected positive outcomes such as improved productivity and health when workers can have ready access to outdoor green spaces as a part of their work environment. Regional conflicts over scarce resources or climate driven displacement can be avoided.
If we invest in this area, what would success look like?
Examples of successful large landscape design, incorporating climate change resilience, stable communities, integrated with natural spaces and corridors, efficient transportation and renewable energy sources will be advanced in multiple locations around the US and the world. New forms of collaboration and governance will be tried, tested and evaluated for application to other large landscapes. As the planet continues to warm (even if we achieve the Paris Accords, we will still experience a 2C increase), these large landscapes will see the least impacts due to built-in resilience. For instance: coastal cities will have maintained or reconstructed large areas of coastal wetlands, vegetated dunes, sand engines, and marshlands that can absorb the energy of storms. Cities along rivers will have rebuilt waterfronts, river bottom lands and flood zones with resilient green infrastructure that can sustain and rapidly recover from periodic flooding.
This is the core message of the last chapter of my book, The Future of Conservation in America, A Chart for Rough Water titled “Resilience”:
We have confidence that the unified vision of conservation will result in significant progress over the long term. The coming together of nature conservation, historical preservation, ecosystem services, environmental justice and civil rights, sustainability, public health, and science communities is overdue, but when fully accomplished will reap significant reward. As these interests increasingly practice the skills of collaboration, and gain experience in working closely together in more common cause, they will and their collective “voice” to be powerful, influential, and effective. (Page 82)
Why is this the right time to invest in this area?
The majority of action related to climate change is focused on mitigation, i.e. carbon sequestration. Little effort is focused on adaptation, yet all indications are that there will be significant impacts to people and the biodiversity of the planet. Now is the time to shift from sustainability to resilience. I strongly believe we have that capacity to design a future that embraces the functional and restorative power of nature, integrating it into large landscapes that include people and all their needs for a healthy and productive life.
While we have the analytical tools and robust models for predicting future scenarios, we have not invested in the political and policy frameworks to be successful. These will take time, require innovation, testing and evaluation. To perfect these approaches across multiple landscapes and scale this up to a national and international adaptation initiative saving millions of lives and preserving biodiversity, now is the time to get started.
References
IPCC Fifth Assessment
Natural Solutions to Climate Change
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