What is the compelling question or challenge?
How can we quantitatively upscale our extensive knowledge of molecular-to-laboratory-scale mechanisms to more effectively manage and control landscape-to-global scale processes in natural ecosystems?
What do we know now about this Big Idea and what are the key research questions we need to address?
Major research efforts occur largely independently at different spatial scales. At the extremes, research on diverse natural or managed ecosystems at landscape, regional, and global scales provides information on outcomes of integrated processes occurring within these complex systems. Meanwhile, increasingly advanced technologies fuel science on atomic-scale processes of relevance to such systems. Between these extremes, macroscale kinetic and thermodynamic models are used to couple reaction and transport processes to make larger-scale predictions of, for example, water and chemical movement through terrestrial ecosystems. However, we lack systematic tools for directly utilizing molecular-scale knowledge to predict macroscale processes leading to innovative strategies for managing landscape-scale problems that arise.
Terrestrial systems are characterized by hierarchies of intricately interwoven geochemical, physical, and biological processes that are spatially variable when observed at any scale across the earth's surface. Disentangling aggregated or coupled processes within these complex mesoscopic systems is a formidable scientific challenge, in part because of the 26+ orders-of-magnitude scale difference between atomic-level interactions and a landscape that is measurably impacted by human activities. Impactful connections across scales have been made in other fields of science. For example, macroscale (thermodynamic) properties of chemical systems can be predicted from classical or quantum mechanics of atoms within the system using statistical thermodynamics. The "ecological fallacy" based in statistical analysis of behavior of individuals (Robinson, 1950) demonstrates why understanding spatial relationships between variables at a finer spatial scale is the key to understanding the relationships observed in aggregated systems at larger scales. In essence, the finer resolution information can provide a cause-effect explanation for the coarser resolution outcomes, but underlying causes cannot be determined from the coarser resolution information. Consequently, discoveries being made at the atomic, nano and microscales are essential for understanding cause-effect relationships in landscape-scale terrestrial ecosystems. A goal of developing more powerful ways to upscale this information could provide a new branch of predictive geosciences that guide policy and appropriate management practices for mitigating environmental impacts of natural processes and anthropogenic activities.
Developing a unifying scientific theory that serves as a framework for understanding connections between extremes of scales has intellectual merit. Geographical information systems (GIS) have evolved as highly effective tools for managing land use. These systems overlay multiple layers of landscape-scale information to understand, for example, how different geological settings, soil types, land uses, weather patterns, and human influences affect outcomes such as natural ecosystem functions, water quality, agricultural productivity, or urban efficiency. But inputs to GIS systems are at the same spatial scale. At the other extreme, extensive analyses (e.g., spectroscopy and imaging) of chemical reactions involving minerals, mineral-organic complexes, mineral-microbial associations, and other particles that are considered model components of more complex natural systems have provided unprecedented insights on molecular bonding and reaction mechanisms.
Key questions need resolution: Why does small-scale, process-based knowledge commonly break down when applied to larger systems, i.e., why does the whole not equal the sum of the parts? Are our model systems not representative of natural systems? Are there vital, aggregated processes that cannot yet be measured? Can the problem be simplified to identifying a few key components or processes that drive outcomes at all higher scales? Can a theory or model be developed that links all scales in nature?
Why does it matter? What scientific discoveries, innovations, and desired societal outcomes might result from investment in this area?
Spatial scaling is conceivably a unifying research area in the earth sciences that would bridge research being conducted, often independently, at multiple scales ranging from atomic to global. The intellectual merit of combining discoveries at multiple scales into a more integrated knowledge base would empower scientists to respond more rapidly and impactfully to existing, emerging, and future earth-science-related problems faced by our global society. A strong scientific effort to develop a system for connecting science conducted at all scales will help to (i) focus research more acutely on any given problem or unexplained natural phenomenon of scientific and societal interest; (ii) identify which processes and scales matter most to managing or solving a given problem or objective; (iii) identify knowledge gaps in managing complex terrestrial systems; and (iv) provide an inclusive system to unify efforts of numerous scientists working across many disciplines and specializations in earth sciences and other fields. Discovering a new theory or developing a system for scaling structural and process-level information from atomic to landscape to global scales will promote more informed decisions, both in science and management of earth-system processes, resulting in a more responsive scientific workforce for solving problems that directly impact the public.
A broader impact of developing visualization tools that show connections across different spatial scales in earth-systems science would be their value as educational tools for stimulating the interest of the next generation of scientists and engineers. This outcome would provide a means for students to focus attention on one or more scales that most stimulate their interest, while seeing the connection between system components. Parallel to this physical connectivity between system scales, such tools would engage human connectivity between students, as it does scientists. The development of innovative, general models and visualization tools for scale connectivity in earth systems would serve as a base for more specific and detailed models focused on any specific problem of concern (climate change, safe water provision, food security, etc.). Advanced visualization tools would stimulate scientists to broaden the scope of their knowledge, identify knowledge gaps, and be more cognizant about connecting their own research to that of others working at the same or different scales. In essence, the idea of uniting scientific efforts across extreme scales in earth sciences is similar to that stimulated, for example, by the Human Genome Project. However, there is a prerequisite need to develop an innovative theory or system for connecting processes across scales of nature while providing a framework around which scientific efforts coalesce.
If we invest in this area, what would success look like?
Imagine yourself in front of a large computer screen or multi-screen hyperwall or in a visualization studio. The images you see are divided into a number of distinct graphical layers representing different scales of observation including global, landscape, macro, micro, and atomic scales. By selecting any scale on the screen, the user "enters" that scale of observation. By manipulating some attribute of the system at this scale (e.g., atmospheric CO2 concentration, regional rainfall pattern, land use, soil organic matter content, re-arrangement of mineral-organic assemblages, or molecular bonding configuration) the collection of images all change in response, constrained by laws of nature discovered via research. For any change imposed at a given scale, there are multiple permutations of the system at smaller scales that could potentially give the same outcome. The ultimate scientific success would be to develop the research knowledge to create such an accurate "Earth System Scaling Simulator". Even to develop scientific tools for predicting macroscale (millimeter to centimeter-scale) outcomes on some part of a terrestrial system directly from knowledge of atomic- to molecular-scale properties and processes would be a major breakthrough.
Successful broader impacts include adoption by scientists, educators, students, and the public of robust, user-friendly visualization tools for exploring and discovering the connections between the world around them and the micro- to nanoscopic building blocks of which our world is composed. Moreover, these efforts would motivate the use of scaling as a concept for uniting scientists across disciplines in developing effective solutions to acute societal problems.
Why is this the right time to invest in this area?
Numerous problems tied to earth sciences affect the future of human existence (e.g. climate change, food insecurity, environmental degradation). Because science continues to be questioned and scrutinized by the public, the future health of science increasingly depends on providing impactful outcomes in a rapidly changing world. In many fields of science and engineering, impactful outcomes of fundamental research are easily recognized. Examples are development of new electronic devices and new treatments for diseases. But earth systems change slowly, so public awareness is diminished. The dramatic increase in computational power and big data analysis in the past few years has enabled scientists to take advantage of complex modeling tasks. New scaling theories and models for connecting parts of natural systems down to the atomic level would take advantage of ongoing rapid developments in analytical and computational tools that continue to expose greater details of these complex systems.
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